THE NATURE OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC CYCLES: NEW FORECASTING CAPABILITIES

Narmansky Vladimir Yakovlevich, non-governmental organization “Gelioritm”

Abstract

It is shown that in addition to the internal socio-economic causes of business cycles, there is an external — physical reason: the dynamics of the kinetic energy of motion of the planets and the potential energy of the gravitational interaction between the planets, which together make up — variable mechanical energy — solar system. This parameter has a significant correlation with the business cycle, but are not considered in the construction of modern forecasting models. The examples of the «Great Depression» and the crisis of 2008 shows that the economic disasters can be predicted in advance with an accuracy of ± 90 days. Obtained in the course of research algorithm used to forecast the short wave of the global economic crisis, which is projected two-wave in the range of February 2017 — March 2018.

KEYWORDS: потенциальная энергия, скорость, радиус-вектор, Юпитер, Сатурн, Уран.

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